With the annual release of the NFL schedule, the market for betting NFL win totals opens up. It’s another popular bet among NFL bettors along with Super Bowl futures. The beauty of the win totals bet is that you can wager on a team’s poor performance as well as on its success. NFL bettors predict how many games a team will win in the regular season. In order to have more success betting NFL win totals, there are a number of factors to consider before placing the wager.
A couple things happen each offseason that will ultimately affect an NFL team’s level of play the following season. Free agency is the first. The actual first day of a new NFL year typically occurs in early to mid-March. The first day of the 2022 NFL league year was March 16. Free agents are able to sign new contracts and trades can occur.
The other big thing that takes place each year in the NFL offseason is the annual draft. The NFL draft usually takes place in late April, most often over the final weekend of the month. Free agency, trades, and players acquired via the draft can have a huge influence on how well a team plays in the upcoming season.
For example, the Denver Broncos were able to acquire former Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson in a trade with Seattle. That will surely have an impact on the number of games Denver wins in 2022. The same could be said for teams that drafted impact players at key positions.
The League Schedule
Each year in May, the NFL schedule is released. A team’s schedule has a big role in their win total for the season. Keep in mind that NFL teams now play 17 games instead of 16. Teams continue to play all of the other teams in their division twice per season. That’s six games right there. Consider a team like Tampa Bay, for example.
The Bucs learned that they will have future Hall of Famer Tom Brady back at quarterback. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be healthy. The defense is solid and the Bucs happen to play in one of the weakest divisions – NFC South – in the NFL. That can translate to six wins right off the top.
The way the NFL schedule works, teams in an NFC division will crossover and play all the teams in an AFC division. Imagine Tampa Bay playing all the teams in the AFC East, the weakest division in the conference. That could be another four wins right there. Right there, a bettor might predict 10 wins for Tampa Bay. With their win total set at 10.5 with +130 odds for the Under and -120 odds on the Over, it’s up to the rest of the schedule to determine whether or not Tampa Bay can get that extra victory and go Over the total.
Rising or Falling?
There are teams that can be identified as those on the rise. Maybe a new coach was installed and he is building a winner. Consider the San Francisco 49ers of the 1980s. The Niners weren’t very good in the ‘70s, but a young Bill Walsh began building what would become one of the sport’s greatest dynasties. In the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, the 49ers were on the rise.
It works in reverse too. Teams lose star players to free agency or even retirement. Coaches move on. Things change and what was once a winner turns into a franchise falling on hard times. The Jacksonville Jaguars lost in the AFC championship game in 2017. Three seasons later, the Jags went 1-15. Where a team is at in the long term is a consideration to make when betting regular season win totals.
Shop for the Best Line
Whether it’s a game spread of a regular season win totals bet, bettors should shop around for the best price. If we take the Tampa Bay example from above, if we can find the Bucs at -110, we can save $10 on a bet to win $100. On the other side of the bet, if we found the Under at +140, we would gain another $10 on a $100 winning bet.
Remember, sportsbooks are attempting to attract equal action on both sides of a bet. Shopping around for better pricing may find you a better value bet on a regular season win total.