It is becoming one of the more popular prop bets among NFL bettors. The Anytime Touchdown prop has increased in popularity as bettors more familiar with fantasy football enter the market.
What is interesting is that during last year’s Super Bowl one prominent sportsbook actually took more action on Cooper Kupp’s Anytime Touchdown prop than on the game’s point spread. This prop will continue to increase in popularity and if you want to have success you must understand first how the bet works.
The Anytime TD Bet
You have to understand that in this market it is the player that crosses the goal line that scores the touchdown. That means a quarterback throwing a touchdown pass is not credited with the Anytime Touchdown. The receiver is.
A quarterback would need to score on a rushing touchdown in order to win in this prop. It’s also important to remember that the bet ends when your player scores a touchdown. You might wager on Ezekiel Elliott at +125, for instance. Your wager is settled after he scores a touchdown, and that’s it. You won’t get paid again if Elliott scores another touchdown in the same game.
Track Your Bets
The first step in winning more bets in this market is to track your activity. This can help you adjust your strategy if needed.
There are several ways to track your bets these days. You can use the old school pen and paper method or you can make your own spreadsheet. There are also several bet tracking apps that are readily available.
Profits vs. Wins
When placing a wager on this market, keep in mind that your profit is more important than your winning percentage. If you’re good, you may win 30 to 35 percent of your Anytime TD Scorer prop bets in a given season.
Bettors in this market will find that betting plus-money players is the way to go. You might occasionally hit on a backup tight end scoring a touchdown at +400 odds. In the end, this is what will drive your profits.
Less Is More
There are hundreds of Anytime TD Scorer prop bets placed each week. You can’t bet them all. Find the top two or three wagers in the market by doing your research. There could be weeks with just one or even none.
Be careful with prime time games. It’s easy to get sucked into multiple Anytime TD bets. As a general rule, stick to two or three bets in this category in high-profile, prime time NFL games.
Plus Money All the Way
In a given week, there will be about 30 to 35 players listed at minus-odds. Keep in mind this market is quite unpredictable. When you bet on a player at minus-odds and he doesn’t score, you lose big. When you hit on a player at plus-money odds, you win big.
Aim for the plus-money targets. Again, that is what will drive your profits.
Shop for the Best Lines
This is true in any market, but even more in this category. It is common to find a player given +200 odds at one sportsbook and +400 at another. Would you rather win $200 or $400?
Use an odds comparison tool to help you find the best odds on the Anytime TD props you like best. Like bet tracking apps, there are several odds comparison tools out there.
Keep Calm and Win
The best NFL offenses in a given season will average 3.7 touchdowns per game. Even the best offenses will struggle at times. Keep that in mind when betting the Anytime Touchdown prop. Create a strategy and stick to it. Alter it when necessary. Do your homework to find the value bets and don’t overreact to losses. If you hit three of ten bets in this market, you will find success.