Here you see Kupp scoring a TD
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Ahead of next weekend’s Super Bowl, there are a number of extremely interesting trends that bettors should be aware of. How about the second consecutive Super Bowl where one of the participants will play in its home stadium? Last year, Tampa Bay played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa and this year the Los Angeles Rams will play in their home, SoFi stadium. In an interesting twist, the Rams will not be the home team. In even-numbered years, the AFC champion – in this case Cincinnati – is the home team.
Here’s a look at a number of other interesting Super Bowl trends that bettors should know.
Betting the Spread
If you’re looking to bet the point spread this year, it’s worth mentioning that the favorite is 35-20 straight up in Super Bowls but just 27-26-2 ATS. The straight up winner of the Super Bowl happens to be 47-6-2 ATS. The straight up winner has covered the spread in each of the last 12 Super Bowls. The last favorite that did not cover was the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII. The Steelers beat Arizona by four points failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites.
Stats Worth Watching
There are four key statistics that have an impact on Super Bowls: rushing yards, yards per pass attempt, turnovers, and time of possession. The team that rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl is 41-14 SU and 38-14-3 ATS. Tampa Bay ran for 145 yards to Kansas City’s 107 last year.
Teams that have the higher yards per pass attempt number are 43-12 SU and 37-15-3 ATS. The team with the fewer turnovers has won 49 of the 55 Super Bowls and is 36-8-8 ATS. Finally, teams that control the ball longer than their opponent are 40-15 SU and 39-13-3 ATS in Super Bowl history. Tampa Bay had the better numbers in all these categories in last year’s win. That’s not surprising. Teams that win all four categories are a whopping 26-0 SU and 24-1-1 ATS.
Speaking of Turnovers
As mentioned, the team that wins the turnover battle is 49-6 SU and 36-8-8 ATS. Entering this year’s Super Bowl, neither the Rams nor the Bengals stood out in this category. The Rams ended up +2 for the regular season and the Bengals were even with 21 turnovers forced and 21 turnovers.
But, in the postseason, Cincinnati has won the turnover battle in all three of its games so far. The Bengals are +5 for the playoffs.
The Big 3-0
If there is a magic number in the Super Bowl, it is 30. Since the NFL made changes to favor the offense in 1978, 26 teams have scored 30 or more points in the Super Bowl. Those 26 teams are 24-2 SU and 23-3 ATS.
The only team in Super Bowl history to win, score 30 points, and fail to cover the spread was the 2004 New England Patriots. Both the 2018 Patriots and the 2013 49ers each scored 30-plus points but lost their Super Bowls and did not cover.
This season, the Rams are a perfect 7-0 when they score 30 or more points. Cincinnati won six of seven games in which they totaled 30 or more points.
Records Don’t Mean Much…Or Do They?
The Rams (12-5) had a better regular season record than the Bengals (10-7). That point hasn’t seemed to matter much when it comes to teams that win Super Bowls. The team with the poorer record has won 11 of the past 12 games.
Be careful with this trend. There have been a total of 48 Super Bowls where the two opponents had uneven records. Overall, the team with the better record has won 29 of the 48 games. With the team having the better record going 1-11 in the last 12, that means at one point the team with the better record was 28-8.
The Super Bowl is great because it offers numerous prop bets for bettors to take advantage of. One player worth checking out is LA’s Cooper Kupp. The Rams wide receiver enters the Super Bowl with at least one touchdown in each of his team’s last five games (and eight of the last nine).
Kupp to score an Anytime Touchdown is listed at -190. To score first, Kupp is listed at +500. You can find these prop bets at any of the top online sportsbooks.