New Orleans vs Tampa Bay | NFL Betting Analysis

For some reason, the New Orleans Saints have had the Tampa Bay Bucs’ number in their past three regular-season meetings, but Tom Brady & Co. are double digit favorites Sunday night on the NFL odds to avoid another season sweep.

How to Bet Saints at Bucs NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium
  • TV: NBC
  • Radio:
  • Stream Option: NBC Sports App
  • Opening NFL Lines: Bucs -11 (total 46.5)

First Meeting

In Week 8, the Saints upset the Bucs 36-27 but did lose starting QB Jameis Winston to a season-ending injury. Backup Trevor Siemian took over for Winston and completed 16 of 29 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown without a turnover, leading the Saints on five scoring drives that produced two touchdowns and three field goals. P.J. Williams intercepted Tom Brady and returned it 40 yards for a touchdown with 1:24 left, helping New Orleans seal the victory. Brady passed for four TDs, but also turned the ball over three times on a pair of interceptions and a fumble, which the Saints converted into 16 points.

Why Bet on New Orleans?

The Saints ended a five-game losing streak last week with a 30-9 win at the Jets. In his return from injury, Alvin Kamara had four receptions, 145 scrimmage yards (120 rushing, 25 receiving) and a rushing touchdown. Kamara, who has 362 receptions since entering the NFL in 2017, surpassed Roger Craig (358) for the most receptions by a running back in his first five seasons in NFL history.

Kamara also has 67 career touchdowns (47 rushing, 19 receiving, one kickoff return), tied with Adrian Peterson (67) for the fifth-most touchdowns by a running back in his first five seasons all-time. Only LaDainian Tomlinson (80) and Emmitt Smith (75), as well as Shaun Alexander (72) and Todd Gurley (70) have more.

Playing through a finger injury vs. the Jets, Taysom Hill completed 15-of-21 passes for 175 adding 11 carries for 73 yards and two touchdowns. He punched a two-yard score in before closing the game with a rushing score of nearly 50 yards. Hill had a few slipups that appeared related to his finger injury. Early in the game, the ball simply slipped backward out of his hand as he attempted to make a throw. He recovered the fumble for a 19-yard loss.

New Orleans has activated defensive end Cameron Jordan off the COVID list for this game. Jordan is tied for second on the Saints in sacks with four in 12 games. He is 1.5 sacks away from 100 in his career, which would make him the second player to record 100 sacks in a Saints uniform, joining Hall of Famer Rickey Jackson. Running back Mark Ingram also might come off that list ahead of Sunday’s game.

The Saints designated tight end Adam Trautman (knee) for return from injured reserve. Trautman landed on IR after he suffered an MCL sprain during a Week 11 loss to the Eagles. He’s missed the mandatory three games in order for him to be eligible to return to the active roster, but Trautman is no lock to be available for Sunday’s game in Tampa Bay. He would need to be activated by Saturday afternoon.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Bucs (10-3) enter Week 15 tied for the best record in the league and seek back-to-back 11-win seasons for the first time in franchise history. With a win against New Orleans, Tampa Bay will also clinch its first NFC South division title since 2007.

Last week, the Bucs beat Buffalo 33-27 in OT but did blow a 17-point fourth-quarter lead. Brady completed 31-of-46 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns, adding seven rushes for 16 yards and an additional score.  Brady eased into halftime 19-of-26 for 216 yards, a passing touchdown and a rushing score as the Bucs led 24-3. He then struggled after the break as the Bills mounted a furious comeback, only to rediscover his mojo in overtime by hitting recent addition Breshad Perriman for a 58-yard, walk-off TD.

Brady leads the league with 4,134 passing yards and 36 touchdown passes. This marks his 13th season with at least 4,000 passing yards, the second-most in league history. Only Peyton Manning (14 seasons) has more.

Brady can also record 40 touchdown passes for the third time in his career, also accomplishing the feat last season (40 touchdown passes) and in 2007 (50). He can join Rodgers as the only players ever to record at least 40 touchdown passes in three different seasons. He would also join Drew Brees (2011-12) as the only players in league history to register at least 40 touchdown passes in consecutive seasons.

Brady’s top targets this season have been wide receivers Mike Evans (885 receiving yards) and Chris Godwin (1,054), who are the only pair of NFC teammates each with at least 850 receiving yards this season.

Since entering the league in 2014, Evans leads the NFL with 72 touchdown receptions and ranks third with 9,151 receiving yards. With 115 receiving yards on Sunday, he will become the first player in league history with at least 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first eight seasons. Godwin recorded 10 receptions for 105 yards in last week’s victory, after totaling a career-high 15 catches for 143 yards in Week 13. He can become the sixth player ever with at least 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards in three consecutive games.

The Buccaneers are 6-0 at home this season and going back to Week 17 of 2020, have scored at least 30 points in each of their past seven regular-season games at Raymond James Stadium. With at least 30 points on Sunday night, Tampa Bay will become the third team ever to score 30 points in eight-or-more consecutive home games, joining the 2012-13 Broncos (11 consecutive home games) and the 1999-2000 Rams (11). Tampa Bay would also become the first-ever team to score at least 30 points in each of its first seven home games of a season.

Game Trends

  • Saints are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
  • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Buccaneers are 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 games in December.
  • Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

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