The NFL’s first ever Super Wild Card Weekend is here. On Saturday, Jan. 15, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Las Vegas Raiders and the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. Then on Sunday, Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, Dallas versus San Francisco, and Pittsburgh at Kansas City happens. The final wild card game this season take place on Monday night when NFC West rivals Arizona and Los Angeles clash at SoFi Stadium. Keep reading for betting advice for this weekend’s Wild Card round so you can get all set to place your bets against the NFL Playoffs odds.
Betting Advice for the NFL Wild Card Round
NFL Super Wild Card Weekend
- When: Saturday, Jan. 15 – Monday, Jan. 17
Look for legit moneyline upset plays
By legit, we mean teams that have a real shot to win their wild card matchups. New England already beat Buffalo, as an example, so the Patriots have a chance to upset the Bills on Saturday night.
On Sunday afternoon, San Francisco can for sure upset the Dallas Cowboys. The Arizona Cardinals beat the Rams already this season. The Cards will have a shot to win the rubber match on Monday night.
On paper, Philadelphia doesn’t look to have much chance against Tampa Bay. Pittsburgh doesn’t look like they’ve got a shot to upset the Chiefs. In the case of the Steelers, though, handicap every angle.
The Steelers gave up a ridiculous amount of rushing yards versus the Ravens and still beat Baltimore 16-13. Somehow, someway, Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger get it done.
When in doubt, take the points
Steelers at Chiefs is a great example of this piece of advice. Kansas City blasted Pittsburgh 36-10 during the regular season.
But Pittsburgh player T.J. Watt is much healthier and rookie running back Najee Harris has put it together. The Steelers also have motivation and Mike Tomlin is one of the best, if not the best, coach in the league.
So taking the points on Pittsburgh makes sense unless you really believe the Chiefs again blow out the Steelers.
Unders often hit during the playoffs
Possessions become a big deal during the playoffs. Teams can get into shootouts, but defensive game plans often rule.
Not only that, but this weekend, defenses will fear opposing quarterbacks. Nobody wants to give the opposing quarterback more possessions. Even Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts can take over a game because he averages 5.6 yards a carry and can throw the ball to DeVonta Smith.
If you have a good feeling a contest will hit over, go with your gut. But if you don’t know for sure, lean towards playing unders.
If you can’t figure a game out, don’t bet on it
The best way to handicap any NFL Playoff game is to envision what should happen, much like thinking about how a horse race might unfold. In the case of Patriots versus Buffalo, we know Bill Belichick is going to lean on his rushing attack to try and keep the ball from Josh Allen.
So the decision becomes easy. Will the third game between the Patriots and Bills turn out like the first where New England won even though Mac Jones threw just 3 passes? Or will it turn out like the second where Josh Allen destroyed New England’s defense?
In the case of 49ers versus Cowboys, it’s somewhat cloudier. Envisioning what should happen in this game is tough because San Francisco could decide to turn it into a shootout. Or Kyle Shanahan and his staff may want to slow it down to keep the ball from Dak Prescott.
If you don’t have a good idea of how a game might go, consider skipping the game and doubling your per game unit on the matchup you really like.