Brentford to beat depleted Watford
Brentford v Watford
Friday, 20:00
Just four points separate these sides ahead of Friday’s meeting, but Brentford’s numbers are more impressive than their opponents’ – especially defensively, where Watford are averaging 1.82 xGA per game and 2.28 xGA across their last three. Two second-half goals gave Thomas Frank’s side the points when these sides met on their way up last season, and Infogol anticipates something similar this time.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1
City to hand Wolves second straight loss
Manchester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Saturday, 12:30
After last weekend’s late defeat against Liverpool, Wolves will be up against it once more as they travel north to face the champions. Bruno Lage’s side drew another blank last week as their goal numbers remain well below their xG, and will be concerned by City’s 2.40 xGF average across their last three league and Champions League matches at the Etihad Stadium.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.006/1
Arsenal to return to form at home
Arsenal v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00
Arsenal’s defeat at Everton made it three losses from their last three on the road, but Mikel Arteta’s side are healthier at home with just one defeat and a 1.10 xGA average across their seven games. Opponents Southampton have been better than their position suggests this season, but remain unconvincing at the back, and Infogol still backs the London side to claim all three points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Chelsea to rebound after recent dip
Chelsea v Leeds United
Saturday, 15:00
A return of just four points from the last three games has seen Chelsea surrender top spot, but the unconvincing displays against West Ham and Watford may be more worrying to Thomas Tuchel than the points tallies. They’re up against a Leeds side who have been helped out by late goals in their last two games, but who are not out of the woods just yet thanks in part to a 1.67 xGA average.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.4017/2
Liverpool to spoil Gerrard’s return
Liverpool v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00
Aston Villa’s victory over Leicester City last weekend was arguably their best performance yet under Steven Gerrard, but a trip to his former club Liverpool will be a far greater challenge. The Reds are coming off a win at the San Siro with a weakened side, and have a league-best home xGF average of 2.59, so anything other than a defeat for Gerrard’s men will require a huge display on the road.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
United to go two-for-two under new boss
Norwich City v Manchester United
Saturday, 17:30
Manchester United have another inviting match as they aim to continue a 100% start under Ralf Rangnick, even if Norwich themselves have shown some improvement under a new manager. Dean Smith’s side are averaging 1.41 xGA across their last six home and away games, but Infogol’s model doesn’t expect that to be enough against opponents who have picked things back up in recent weeks.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Brighton to dent Spurs after European exploits
Brighton & Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, 14:00
Spurs will go into this game off the back of an important European game against Rennes, while a Covid outbreak will also worry Antonio Conte, and that’s before considering Brighton’s own form. The hosts secured points through late Neal Maupay equalisers in their last two games, and an impressive 1.19 xGA average at the Amex Stadium will give Graham Potter’s side belief they can win on Sunday.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1
West Ham to come through Burnley test
Burnley v West Ham
Sunday, 14:00
Both of these sides lost key men last weekend, with Maxwel Cornet leaving the field early for Burnley and Kurt Zouma limping off for West Ham, so the outcome at Turf Moor may be down to how they both respond. Last season’s corresponding game saw plenty of goalmouth action as the Hammers came from behind to win, and Infogol anticipates both sides getting on the scoresheet but David Moyes’ visitors sneaking a result.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2
Leicester to spoil Newcastle’s recovery
Leicester City v Newcastle United
Sunday, 14:00
Newcastle climbed off the bottom last weekend with their first league win of the season, but things will be tougher for them against an unpredictable Leicester side. Newcastle hit four at the King Power Stadium last season, denting the Foxes’ top-four bid in the process, but Infogol’s model sees this one going the way of Brendan Rodgers’ side to keep the visitors in trouble.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Palace to bring an end to losing streak
Crystal Palace v Everton
Sunday, 16:30
Palace can feel rather hard done by after losing their last three without being especially poor, and they will hope Everton’s late win on Monday night doesn’t represent the start of a real turnaround for Rafa Benitez’s side. The hosts are averaging just 0.66 xGA at Selhurst Park, a home return only bettered by Manchester City, and Infogol backs them to claim an important victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1 or 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
