Our guest this week is Jack Allweil. Jack wrote a book called “Make Better Bets: An Actuary’s Quest to Bet the Russian 2018 FIFA World Cup with Excel.” We talk to Jack about his book, and his experience betting the last World Cup.
We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.
[00:00] introduction Jack Allweil, author of Make Better Bets
[00:35] Betting on soccer
[03:04] Using a model with few variables
[05:31] Time spent on the model, benefits of a passion project
[07:14] How much data from 2018 will be relevant in 2022?
[09:22] Other potential variables, like country popularity skewing lines, VAR reviews
[11:16] Getting bets down
[12:50] Analyzing the 2018 results
[15:03] Betting on all four teams in a group
[18:08] Line shopping
[20:33] Relocating to bet more easily
[21:58] How did losing a job change Jack’s life?
[24:20] Jack’s wife, Elena
[25:52] Betting other soccer leagues
[27:03] What’s the next big thing that Jack will be betting on?
[28:38] South Point Casino January Promotion – $500k Spin to Win
[31:45] http://VideoPoker.com/gwae – Gold Membership offers correction on most games, free Pro Membership trial for GWAE listeners
[32:58] Choosing the name Make Better Bets
[34:59] Kelly criteria
[37:26] Betting as a married man
[39:33] Brothers on Books podcast
[40:53] Contacting Jack
[41:47] Recommended: Cryptonomicon by Neal Stephenson, Libby app for libraries, Wall Street Bets by Jaime Rogozinski