Bernardo worth chancing to score at Doncaster
Leg 1: Bernardo O’Reilly to Win 13:25 Doncaster @ 11/1
Tony Calvin says: “Now, I know that he hasn’t won for a while, he can be a bit tricky, he is 1lb out of the handicap, in a race that has held up remarkably well number-wise from the five day stage, and I’d prefer it if they had gone back to claiming off him.
“But he does have a lot going for him, trust me.”
“And not least because he probably should have been coming here under a 4lb penalty for winning over 7f at Newmarket last Saturday.
“He was travelling kindly for Martin Dwyer throughout there but the jockey was content to sit and wait off the pace towards the centre of the track, a tactic which backfired as he then met trouble in running at a crucial stage, and he was harassed by Le Reveur on his outside, before he managed to get clear racing daylight in the closing stages.
“He was only 1 ½ lengths adrift at the line, easily shaping like the best horse in the race. Opportunity missed.
“You can see from his last five outings that he comes here in fine fettle, without enjoying the best luck on occasions – he hasn’t been beaten more than 2 ½ lengths on any of those starts, and that includes a 22-runner Ayr Bronze Cup – and I can see him pouncing late off a fast pace in here (I counted around six possible forward-goers), for all his best form to date has admittedly come over 6f.
“But that Newmarket run came over this trip, the soft ground here is no issue and his last win came off a 1lb higher mark at this very track in September 2020 in a very good time.”
Cagey affair expected at the Amex
Leg 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Brighton v Newcastle @ 19/20
Live on BT Sport, KO: 17:30
Mike Norman says: “Brighton are enjoying a great start to the Premier League season but it’s perhaps gone a little bit unnoticed that they’re now without a win in six games in all competitions.
“While they conceded four against Man City, and had to change their game plan when 2-0 down early to Liverpool last week, the worry is that against teams they are fancied to beat the Seagulls have reverted to last season’s type – dominating possession but failing to convert the chances they create.
“Brighton have had two recent goalless draws with Arsenal and Norwich and just before that they drew 1-1 with Crystal Palace, three games on the spin when Under 2.5 Goals landed when the opposite was fancied.
“Newcastle are already fighting for their lives and I think they have enough about them to keep this very tight. Interim boss Graeme Jones will know that Brighton are likely to dominate the game and he’ll set his team up to frustrate the Seagulls.
“The Magpies have had three 1-1 draws in their last six games so that alone tells us there’s a 50/50 chance that this will go under the 2.5 goals mark, but if you check the recent head-to-head between these two teams it makes encouraging reading for low-goals backers.
“After Brighton were promoted the first six meeting between these two sides finished 1-0, 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-0 0-0. And although both meetings last season featured exactly three goals they were games in which both teams failed to score with both matches finishing 3-0.”